I read the responses to Mr. Kish. I don’t agree with labelling people, and the language used often comes to those who reject the existence of the Holocaust, something much more easy to prove.
In an otherwise excellent comparison to the Pascal’s wager (that omits only if you act as if you believe, you will come to believe), it was stated that the evidence for human activity increasing the earth’s temperature is all a matter of probabilities that one can argue about (probably to be able to make the analogy more fitting or more acceptable to people who disagree with the science).
Well, this is true, but to a very limited extent. The evidence that we have that human activity is warming the planet is as strong as the evidence supporting the Surgeon General to require a warning on cigarettes (I understand that’s a controversial example in the Tar Heal state) in the early 1960s and which evidence further corroborated. It is strong enough that many nations have entered into a climate change treaty that seeks to limit increases in carbon dioxide emissions. Whether in the end, it proves out that the release of carbon emissions by the burning of fossil fuels as well as by reducing the earth’s capacity to absorb it by clearing forests, etc., I cannot know because I won’t live long enough. But the large scale global effects (it’s only unclear exactly how large those effects will be and how costly to human beings to avoid them if possible) will be effectively irreversible for a long, long time.
It is not unreasonable to consider “scientific consensus” today to be something more reliable than what it was in 1543. Also, I imagine there was more scientific doubt about the earth-centric scientific consensus at that time than there is about anthropomorphic climate change today. As you pointed out, the price to pay for opposing the consensus in 1543 was rather harsh, but nobody is going along with scientific consensus today to avoid being cast into prison.
Here is a recent peer reviewed paper on the subject of CO2 and temperature.
No one has time to fully research the science involved. Those who do so have devoted their lives to the study and that’s why we trust them. The overwhelming consensus of those people is that climate change is happening, and that it is influenced by human actions. Full stop. The parts of this that are still being debated are questions like:
How much warming has occurred?
How much of that warming is natural vs anthropogenic?
How much will it warm in the future if we do nothing?
How much will it warm in the future if we do something?
What are the effects that this warming will have on the cryosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere?
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 11:30:01 -0500
From: “Constance Keptic”
Subject: Pat Cabe and Pascal’s Wager
Fundamentally what Pat Cabe is saying is it doesn’t matter whether climate change is a real phenomenon or, if it is, whether human activity contributes to it. If we act as if both those propositions are true, then we will end up better off than if we don’t.
Our present path with respect to China is particularly important here. China is making considerable investments in sustainable, renewable energy, and we are not by comparison. If we continue to keep our heads stuck in the sand, then China is likely to become our new Saudi Arabia, and once again we will be net importers of energy and the technology associated with a future that will certainly happen whether we elect to shape it or not.
But I wish you good luck convincing people with logic and facts.
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 10:42:43 -0500
From: Gene Galin
Subject: Leads on Sheriff Dept’s stolen AR-15 rifle, ammo & body armor?
On February 20, the Chatham County Sheriff’s Office received notification of a larceny from a law enforcement vehicle that occurred in Sanford, NC. Items stolen include an AR-15 rifle, two 30-round magazines, and body armor belonging to the Chatham County Sheriff’s Office.
Anyone with knowledge of the crime, suspects, or location of the stolen items should contact the Sanford PD at 919-775-8268.
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 10:29:04 -0500
From: Christopher Hart
Subject: CCHS PTA Chicken Tender Fundraiser
CCHS FFA needs your help! The Chatham Central PTA Chicken Tender Dinner will be March 17th. This is a school-wide fundraiser. Please help us spread the word. CCHS FFA students are also able to raise money for the program by selling plates and participating.
Plates are $8–drink and desert are included. Delivery is available for large orders.
We also need drivers, deserts, canned drinks/bottled waters, and volunteers to help set up, cook and clean up.
If you are interested in helping the FFA raise money through the sale, please contact Mr. Hart at
Chatham Central High School
14950 NC HWY 902
Bear Creek, NC 27207
Office: 919 837 5961
Mobile: 919 548 0676
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 09:27:36 -0500
From: Bruce Hively
Subject: on perk testing…
first let me say that I am not a geologist, hydrologist, or even a digger of holes.
however, the way I understand the reasons for perk testing is to find the best possible soil composition and compaction to allow water to be absorbed at a certain rate.
ergo, it is the best spot to place your septic system, assuming you are going to have a septic system.
which begs the question, if you are not using a septic system, of which there are many choices, would you still need a perk test for a home site?
so you can do own un-official perk test by getting a hold of some post hole diggers, dig some holes, then put a measured amount of water in the holes and note how much time it takes for the water to disappear.
you may have to do this many times since obviously you are not a geologist or a hydrologist but will soon be a certified hole digger!
Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2017 12:31:16 -0500
From: Pat Cabe
Subject: Taylor Kish, climate change, and Pascal’s Wager: It all starts local
So, the vitriolic Taylor Kish (whoever he, she, it, or they may be) erupts once again, this time railing against the Chatham climate change committee.
Part of his (or her or its or their) argument is that the entire issue of climate change is false, and that either no such change is occurring or any such changes are outside human intervention. Therefore, he (or she or it or they) concludes that the Chatham climate change panel is a waste of time, effort, and money.
Kish’s argument reminds me of Pascal’s famous wager with respect to belief in god (generic; it doesn’t matter which version of god you prefer). Pascal’s Wager goes something like this (admittedly oversimplified):
God may or may not exist; there is no way to decide the issue on the basis of earthly evidence. Consequently, one must face the prospect of how to manage one’s earthly life with respect to the possibilities that god either does, or does not, exist.
If god exists and one acts in accord with a belief that god exists, one gives up some earthly pleasure (a small cost, yet with some earthly benefits to oneself and others), for the prospect of gaining eternal heavenly reward (that is, an infinitely large pay-off).
If god exists, but one acts in accord with the belief that god does not exist, one may enjoy some additional earthly pleasures (perhaps sinful; a small gain), but with the prospect of eternal damnation (that is, an infinite cost).
If god does not exist, belief and non-belief yield the same eternal consequences (that is, neither infinite loss nor infinite benefit, only nothingness). Pascal concludes that believing affords better prospects than not believing.
Whether you like Pascal’s argument or not, the climate change argument has some of its flavor. Man-made climate change may or may not exist; the evidence, at best, is a matter of probabilities.
If climate change does exist and we act as if it exists (intervening, for example, by pursuing alternative forms of sustainable energy), there are some comparatively small, and comparatively near-term, costs. However, there are major long-term benefits for ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren, indeed, for all life on the planet. If climate change exists and we act as if it does not, there are long-term, and highly negative, consequences, while the benefits are comparatively small, are comparatively short-term (less than a lifetime), and affect a comparatively small segment of the population (most likely, investors).
If climate change does not exist, and we act as if it does, we stand to gain the same long-term benefits of believing and acting as if it does. If climate change does not exist, and we act as if it does not, we continue down the path we are now on, with clear costs in environmental quality and impacts on human health.
Argue all you want to about the quality of the evidence for and against man-made climate change; indeed, it is a game of probabilities. The bottom line still comes to the costs and benefits, both short-term and long-term, that we are willing to accept as a society and as inhabitants of the planet. In ways that seem reasonably parallel to Pascal’s analysis, the safer bet is that man-made climate change exists and continues and that we should therefore act accordingly.
The first element of Pascal’s Wager is that, categorically and without exception, one cannot avoid making the bet. Because we all, categorically and without exception, must live with climate, we cannot avoid making the bet on climate change. Action to forestall, and possibly reverse, it seems clearly to be the safer and more productive choice. Inaction, like it or not, also is making a bet.
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 01:51:41 +0000
From: Lisa Patterson
Subject: What is going on at St. Bartholomew’s in Pittsboro?
February 23 – Community lunch
Open to all every Thursday except Thanksgiving, from 12 Noon until 1 PM. Volunteers are always welcome.
February 28 – Pancake supper
Celebrate Shrove Tuesday with us! Pancakes served from 5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. – Suggested donation: $5 for adults $10 for a family. Bring your palms from last year to prepare ashes for Ash Wednesday service to be conducted at noon on March 1st.
Come join us and bring family and friends or meet some new ones there! St. Bartholomew’s Episcopal Church 204 W Salisbury Street Pittsboro 919-542-5679 For more information on any of these, please visit our webpage (http://www.saint-barts.org/).
Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2017 18:17:09 +0000
From: Shannon Godbout
Subject: Sarah Weller Pegna, Chatham Health Alliance Receive National Recognition
Chatham County, NC: The Chatham Health Alliance was recognized with the Health Transformation Award at the Communities Joined in Action conference in San Antonio, Texas on February 16th. The award specifically recognized the work of Sarah Weller Pegna, Coordinator for the Chatham Health Alliance, in leading the implementation of the Exercise is Medicine program. A collaborative initiative between Piedmont Health Services and the Chatham County Public Health Department, Exercise is Medicine is a program originally designed by the American Medical Association and the American College of Sports Medicine to reduce chronic disease burden through physical activity referrals.
“Exercise is Medicine embodies what the Chatham Health Alliance seeks to accomplish and highlights the importance of building partnerships to improve health outcomes,” the nomination letter states. “This model is replicable, evidence-based, and targets health disparities by design. Given these factors, the Chatham Health Alliance, through Sarah’s leadership, has transformed health in the county and will continue to be a driver of population health in the years to come.”
Sarah acknowledged the many partners involved in this initiative, stating, “This award, and the success of Exercise is Medicine, is really reflective of the whole Alliance, especially our partners at Piedmont Health Services, and a dedicated group of Alliance members on the Alliance’s Obesity Subcommittee. Without these individuals and their dedication, we would not have been able to realize this project.”
The Health Transformation Award is given to one idea or project nationally that “demonstrates a breakthrough model that achieves better health outcomes, addresses health inequities/disparities, improves access to health care or promotes a culture of health.” The Chatham County YMCA, Chatham Hospital, and Piedmont Health Services offered letters of support for the nomination. “All of Chatham should be very proud of this well-deserved national recognition,” said Dennis Streets, who served as the inaugural Chair of the Chatham Health Alliance. “It symbolizes the tremendous effort underway across our community to bring together public and private organizations and an engaged citizenry to improve health and health care.”
Chatham Health Alliance Chair Daisy Womble referred to Sarah as “a talented professional,” adding, “I am not surprised she’s getting an award.” Chatham County Public Health Director Layton Long cited Sarah’s remarkable leadership in fostering partnerships during her tenure as Alliance Chair. “Sarah’s diligent efforts to engage local organizations and community members in this work will have a lasting impact on the community’s health.”
Since its formation in early 2015, the Chatham Health Alliance has brought together dozens of organizations and community members who are passionate about improving health outcomes in Chatham County. Along with this recognition, the Alliance has been awarded funding through The Duke Endowment’s Healthy Carolinas initiative (which supported Exercise is Medicine), a Blue Cross Blue Shield NC Community-Centered Health grant, and is one of fifty participants selected for the Healthiest Cities and Counties Challenge through the American Public Health Association, the National Association of Counties, and the Aetna Foundation. To learn more about the Chatham Health Alliance, visit: www.chathamnc.org/chathamhealthalliance.
Shannon Kincaide Godbout, MSc
Social Research Associate
Health Promotion and Policy Division
Chatham County Public Health Department
I had to go watch again after some of the comments ;'}Not knowing the speeds makes it harder to judge but you weren't too close until the 0:40 mark - which was 1.5 seconds before the idiot brake-checked you. That means that just as you are approaching the "too close" range he was already scheming […]
Neither of us were speeding. He was varying his speed for some reason from 55 down to 50 and then back up....My app used to record speed too, not sure when it stopped doing that function. Also to an earlier post about the one fingered salute. I don't do that. It […]
Personally I hate tailgaters. Anything can happen~such as a deer darting across the road, something flying out of a vehicle in front of you etc. requiring you to have to brake harder than normal.Just not a good practice.I drive 64 between Siler and PBO often enough to also know some areas poo...
Quote from: Ice Pilot2 on Today at 12:29:11 PMToo close is not a matter of geography. Safe following distances should factor in speed and road conditions. It is a matter of physics. Being safe and respectful is not limited to fictional Mayberry, or whether someone ...
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